The Workload Report - NFL Week 1 - RBs
Combining the Opportunity, Production, and Fantasy Results stats that you need into one catch-all tool
Last and final time I will send a Fantasy Football email to the Top Shot mailing list! Unfortunately I usually am able to post it to Reddit in Week 1, but they are currently banning me so I am trying my best to get it out to as many eyes as possible. Enjoy!
Back on my regularly scheduled Top Shot posts starting NEXT WEEK!
Week 1 of the 2021 fantasy football season is finally in the books! Like many of you, I spent the majority of my Sunday night scrolling through lineups and thinking about some of my start/sit decisions from earlier that morning. As nerve-wracking as they are, these last-minute start-sit decisions are both the most crucial and the most challenging moves you will make as a fantasy football owner.
To help with this, I created The Workload Report which summarizes different pieces of critical information relating to opportunity, production, and fantasy results into one nice little spreadsheet. If you missed the introduction article from yesterday, make sure to read that now!
Here is the link to the google sheet version of The Workload Report, which will only be available to paid subscribers after Week 1. You aren’t able to sort within the sheet, but if you download it, you can view it through whatever filters you want!
Typically, I will do a more cursory overview of the week that was, highlighting some of the strong performers and sleeper potentials. However, with the season so fresh and new still, I wanted to make sure I took a lot of time this week breaking down every position group on every team. In this post, I am focusing on Running Backs only. Wide Receivers will come to your inbox later tonight, and Tight Ends will follow on Thursday. I think this three-part in-depth overview is extremely crucial this early in the season.
Moving forward, the positional tiers that I am providing below will be sent out every Thursday. In Week 1, they will be expanded on and will take the place of the official long-form analysis that will come out every Tuesday. Enjoy! I am excited to hear reactions to this in the Discord this week (available only to paid subscribers beginning Thursday night).
Running Backs
Let’s dive in and see how each backfield looks after Week 1.
Elite Bellcow Backs
Christian McCaffrey - Oh how we missed you CMC. In a game where his team only scored 19 points and he didn’t score any TDs, McCaffrey still managed 10 catches for 89 yards and another 98 yards on the ground to finish the day with 28.7 PPR points and a 41% fantasy share. Whew…
Dalvin Cook - The consensus first and second pick come in right where they should after their Week 1 performances. In a losing effort, Dalvin Cook saw a whopping 95% rushing share, a 97% rushing yards share and even though he only got 61 yards on the ground he still managed 22.4 PPR points and a 24% fantasy share. The Vikings have some things to prove, but Dalvin certainly does not.
Alvin Kamara - If this list is starting to look like your leagues draft board, just wait it’s about to get crazy. Kamara only saw 51% of his team’s rushing snaps this week, but that is due to the extremely positive blowout game script against the Packers. Make no mistake, this is a bad bad man who will be at the top of fantasy leaderboards all season.
Joe Mixon - Turns out the Bengals coaches weren’t messing around with their offseason Mixon hype talk. Dude only saw 30 carries and a 55% usage rating, finishing the day with 152 yards and a TD. Mixon was almost a must-have in DFS this week, and does not have much competition below him on the depth chart. Wheels up!
Derrick Henry - There are definitely some alarm bells going off in Titans camp this week. They looked downright atrocious against the Cardinals, yet Derrick Henry still maintained a 37% usage rate on a team playing from behind. The three catches on an 11% target share are a sight for sore eyes from the bruiser out of Alabama. In order for Henry to put up dominant numbers this season, the Titans are going to have to get their offense figured out.
Darrell Henderson Jr. - Tough look for for people who spent 30% of their FAAB on Sony Michel before Week 1. That got you a big 1 carry for 2 yards. Henderson looked like the truth out there against a typically stout Bears defense, and clearly has the trust of McVay after seeing a 70% rushing share. I would like to see his target numbers increase (only 1 on Sunday), but the game script did not require it in a blowout. Henderson is looking like a solid pick from the RB deadzone so far.
Chris Carson - That’s right Carson is up in the elite bellcow tier to start the year. I think this happens just about every year, so I wouldn’t get too excited just yet, but with the injury to Rashaad Penny, Carson is going to get plenty of work. The Seahawks will always want to pass before they run, but in a big passing volume day, Carson still accounted for an 18% fantasy share. YLTSI.
Antonio Gibson - We all thought that Gibson wasn’t going to be a standalone bellcow this year, and then he went out and did just that in Week 1. J.D. McKissic was purely an afterthought and registered a 4% usage rate. Gibson saw 5 targets for a 24% share and accounted for 31% of his team’s fantasy points. The only downside is the whole Ryan Fitzpatrick may be lost for the year thing, so it will be interesting to see how to offense changes with Taylor Heinecke at the healm.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - We know that the Chiefs are going to rely on their passing attack all season long. Unfortunately for CEH truthers, he only saw 3 targets for a 9% share against the Browns. This was probably due to the Chiefs playing in comeback mode for the majority of the game, and isn’t very reflective of his future involvement. All we know about the Chiefs other RBs is that Darrel Williams got one carry and Jerick Mckinnon barely even saw the field. The points will come for CEH.
Najee Harris - 100% of snaps. I’m not sure I need to say much more. Of course Harris only scored 5.9 PPR points and had a tough time making anything work when he got the ball against the Bills, but the opportunity is definitely there. Tomlin is not afraid to ride his young running back into the ground this year.
Bellcows Dealing with a 3rd Down/Goal-Line Vulture
David Montgomery - No matter how you slice it, Montgomery looked really good against a tough Rams front seven on Sunday night. Montgomery broke the 100 yard barrier and managed a touchdown, but Damien Williams still had a 17% usage rate, which is enough to drop Monty out of the elite tier.
Austin Ekeler - Raise your hand if you knew who Larry Rountree III was before Week 1? Didn’t think so! Fortunately for Ekeler drafters, Rountree only turned 8 carries into 27 yards and 2.7 fantasy points, but the 30% rushing share is something to keep an eye on. I’d be willing to bet we don’t see another target-less game for Ekeler all season, so I’m glad we got that out of the way early.
Damien Harris - Rhamondre Whosaidwhat? There was a lot of concern that Stevenson, the rookie out of Oklahoma, would pose a threat to the Damien Harris workload. After fumbling and missing a pretty massive pass protection assignment, it will be tough for Stevenson to even get a word in with Belichick this week, much less take the field for meaningful snaps. James White of course did his thing with 6 catches and an 18% target share, but that is to be expected. I am encouraged by the 83% rushing share from Harris and the high snap count.
Miles Sanders - I thought Sanders looked really good on Sunday, he was explosive and the Eagles did a nice job getting him the ball in space. The blowout gamescript has a lot to do with Kenneth Gainwell’s usage and TD, so I wouldn’t be psrinting to the waiver wire to try and claim him this week. Moving forward, Jalen Hurts is always going to limit the upside from Sanders and ultimately will most likely prevent him from making the jump into the Elite tier. Sanders is a surefire starter RB1/2 in this offense.
Ezekiel Elliott - On Thursday night, I jokingly tweeted ‘RBBCowboy”, but after diving into the data it appears that my eyes deceived me. Zeke was on the field for 83% of the Cowboys snaps in Week 1, but he was just facing an absurdly tough TB defensive line. I still think Pollard will be involved enough to take away from Elliott’s pure bellcow potential, but it will be fun to watch what happens in a more normal game script.
Mike Davis - It’s embarrassing to admit how much time I spent trying to figure out where the rest of Atlanta’s carries went before I realized I had Cordarrelle Patterson labeled as a WR. For all intents and purposes, he is a change of pace RB in this offense, and will be a thorn in Mike Davis side. The 20% target share for Davis is very encouraging, but he was actually outrushed (54 yards to 49 yards) by Patterson on Sunday. Now he gets to face the same Tampa Bay defense that gave Zeke fits last week.
Saquon Barkley - Regardless of whether the Giants were trying to ease Saquon back in or not, the fact of the matter is that they absolutely stunk in Week 1, and that should be a concern. The modest numbers from Booker (4 carries and 2 targets) look pretty big compared to Saquon’s (10 carries and 3 targets), so for now I am leaving Barkley down in this bucket. Get this man a competent football team please.
Aaron Jones - Context matters in fantasy football analytics, and even though Aaron Jones, Kylin Hill, and A.J. Dillon pretty evenly split carries on Sunday against the Saints, everyone who watched knows the game was out of hand quickly. Of course, 9 yards on 5 carries and a measly 6% target share isn’t what people were hoping for when they spent a late 1st or early 2nd round pick on Aaron Jones this summer. I’m okay throwing this one in the variance bucket and looking ahead to Week 2.
Running Back by Committee (RBBC) w/ Fantasy Potential
D’Andre Swift & Jamaal Williams - Forget what the pregame reports said, these boys came to play! Both of them had 8 catches on a 15%+ target share, and they split the rushing workload pretty evenly (11 to 9 in favor of Swift). What’s crazy is how efficient both guys were against San Francisco. Williams (25) slightly nudged Swift (24.4) in PPR points, but these two were an explosive duo. If this production keeps up, I may need to figure out a new category.
Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt - Since I am making this list based only on what we saw in Week 1, it would be unfair for me to label this duo as anything other than a RBBC. They clearly have huge combined fantasy upside, but when a player like Kareem Hunt averages more than 1.8 PPR per touch, it’s hard to call Chubb a pure bellcow. Of course, Chubb can continue to be dialed in as an RB1/2 candidate every week while Hunt has plenty of RB3/Flex upside. The duo combined for 3 TDs in Week 1, and should continue to play a huge role in the Browns offense all season.
Jonathan Taylor & Nyheim Hines - We know that Hines is going to shine in comeback efforts when the Colts are forced to pass the ball more. After watching this team on Sunday, Hines owners can take solace in the fact that Indy might be in catch up mode a lot this year. On the flip side, Week 1 was a good news/bad news week for Jonathan Taylor. The good news is he saw a 20% target share and finished with 6 catches for 60 yards and a TD. The bad news is he only commanded 57% of the Colts rushing attempts. All signs point to Hines as a real threat in this backfield.
Ty’Son Williams & Latavius Murray - It’s hard to tell if the almost fumble scare led to some depressed usage from Williams, or if the Ravens really liked what they saw out of Murray the first couple days he was in their camp. Williams is clearly the more explosive runner of the group, but the Ravens have plenty of old guys in the wings which will limit his longterm upside a bit.
Elijah Mitchell, JaMycal Hasty, Trey Sermon - One of the bigger gut punches of the week is seeing that Mostert is now out for the season. Apparently Sermon is in Shanahan’s doghouse already (after no reports of this during the offseason), and Elijah Mitchell is in prime position to be a league winner. Load up the FAAB and see if you can snag Mitchell on waivers.
Chase Edmonds & James Conner - It appears that right out of the gate, the ADP gap between Edmonds and Conner was a bit too much. While Edmonds finished the week with more points (14.6 vs. 5.3 PPR), Conner saw more attempts (16 to 12) and similar snaps (34 to 40 from Edmonds). It’s no question that Edmonds is the more explosive player, but the committee will limit his upside.
Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, Giovani Bernard - After fumbling early and essentially watching the rest of the game from the bench, Ronald Jones has just been announced the starter again with full support from Bruce Arians. I’m not buying it. While Jones is much more explosive than Fournette, it is clear that Arians loves the big boy out of LSU, and as long as that is true this will be a hard backfield to understand. Keep watching and learning. Definitely don’t play RoJo in DFS this week though.
Josh Jacobs & Kenyan Drake - This is a yearly tradition at this point, but sell high on Josh Jacobs after Week 1. Luckily for Jacobs owners, he managed to run it in for two touchdowns on Monday night. However Drake wasn’t far behind him in snaps, and I lost track of the different injuries Jacobs kept leaving the game for. Looks like a dicey situation in Las Vegas this season.
Melvin Gordon & Javonte Williams - I am assuming that Williams may be a popular week 1 fantasy drop. That’s what happens when you are a rookie and the incumbent RB rips off a 70 yard touchdown in Week 1. Don’t over-react just yet, Williams has some sneaky opportunity stats. He saw 50% of the teams carries (more than melvin), but only managed to convert that into 27% of the team’s rushing yards and 6% of the teams fantasy points. I think he is worthy of a bench stash for a few weeks.
Untouchable RBBC until further notice
Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, Salvon Ahmed - This is going to be a prove it week for this group facing Buffalo in Week 2. I’m definitely not excited about the 38% usage rate from Myles Gaskin, and while the 19% target share is encouraging, the 1 yard aDOT is enough to not get me too excited. These weren’t designed plays, just bailout dumpoffs from Tua. Don’t think any of these guys need to be in your starting lineup this weekend.
Devin Singletary, Matt Breida, Zack Moss? - Reports out of camp were that Moss was in a position battle with Breida. A late scratch on Sunday morning was tough news for people who were drafting Moss in the 8th and 9th rounds all summer. In a game where the Bills offense was all out of sorts, Singletary actually performed pretty well with his 11 carry and 5 target workload. Breida averaged 1 yard per carry, and I’m not sold that Zack Moss is an afterthought just yet. We’ll take the wait and see approach with Buffalo.
Carlos Hyde & James Robinson - Before the week started, I did not think I would be listing Hyde first in this group, but here we are. This backfield is pretty gross, and I can’t help but think it has a lot to do with the head coach who is apparently “overwhelmed in the NFL” after Week 1. Hey Urban, just give your guy JRob (who was up in the Elite Bellcow tier last year) the ball and you will be much better off.
Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, Michael Carter - Oh boy this is looking like a tough group to root for this year. Jets are bad, Zach Wilson might be bad, and these running back all surely looked bad on Sunday. The carries were spread out, the targets were spread out, and quite frankly the production was piss poor. Bench them all.
Mark Ingram, Philip Lindsay, David Johnson - You could not convince me to spend a single dollar of FAAB on any of these guys. Yes, as a group they accounted for 35 PPR points and each scored a TD in Week 1, but man this is an ugly one to try and decipher. I’m ok betting on old guys at the beginning of the season, but I am damn sure not thinking either of these guys are going to be having a spot in my lineup on a weekly basis. This game highlighted how bad the Jaguars defense is more than it gave us any sense of eagerness for the Houston run game.
That wraps up my Week 1 initial Running Back rankings. As I mentioned a few times, some of these are clearly a reaction to what we saw in Week 1, and for other teams it’s important to understand a bit more context around their game.
If you enjoyed the analysis, please subscribe so you can get this for the rest of the season for as little as $2/week! Also, be on the lookout for the Wide Receiver (Wednesday night) and Tight End (Thursday) versions later this week.