The Daily Data - 4/8/21 - Circ. Count
Using the Circulating Count tool to prepare for the Pre-Order (Release 24) pack drop
Quick housekeeping…if you missed yesterday’s post about the “Compare Commons” tool, make sure to check that out. Also, I went live on YouTube with @NBATopShotTalk last night, feel free to skip ahead to the 13 minute mark to avoid the technical difficulties. Finally, I put out a fun thread on Twitter this morning trying to figure out who would be the Lebron of “other sport” Top Shot, so go vote on that as well!
In today’s edition of The Daily Data, I am going to walk everyone through the “Circulating Count” tool and show you how this can help predict where the supply and demand strains are going to be in the market.
During the Seeing Stars pack drop on the first weekend of March, I used this tool to help uncover some clues as to what the Cool Cats 3 Commons were going to be. When I first tweeted out the list on March 8th, the moments were selling for sub-$10 and they proceeded to get up to $35+ right before the official pack drop. That should pretty quickly help illustrate the power of this tool.
In creating the circulating count sheet, I went back all the way to Base Set “Release 1” and compiled all of the internal Top Shot Google Sheet data into one spot. I have focused only on the S2 Commons, because when they have released Rare and Legendary moments this series it has typically been all at once.
Here is an example of how the circulation went for some of the /4000 rookies. You can see they were heavy on releasing them early, and then as more drops came they tapered them down and now these are at a small trickle.
This is a similar pattern to what has happened for most of the moments this Series. They have released them in waves starting with the /7.5k and /15k moments and have continued that with this /35k grouping. The first Pre-Order pack (release 21) and the Seeing Stars drop introduced the first group of 35k moments. It also included some new 4k rookies and 12k Top Shot Debuts. This next pre-order pack is going to feature over 50 brand-new moments. Here’s the full list thanks to The First Mint.
Now that we have set up the basics for how the tool is used, let’s dive into the aspects of it that can help us make informed decisions. Here’s my obligatory “not your financial advisor, just your buddy pal, so use this for informational purposes only” statement.
I have the listed sorted in descending order by serial count, and then again in descending order by total remaining to be distributed. As you can see, all 7.5k, 15k, and a majority of 12k moments are completely distributed by Top Shot and are “Out in the Wild”. You can always go to evaluate.market to find more specifics on each moment (how many are still in unopened packs sitting in collections, how many unique users compared to listings, etc..), but this tool is an easy high-level overview. Let’s put this into action by comparing Immanuel Quickley and Patrick Williams.
These two players are pretty similar in price range right now, but they are very different when it comes to serial count. The number shown in “Remaining” & “Total in Circulation” currently act like Release 24 is in the market, so make sure to take that into account, but the point is still the same. 100 of the 3866 (2.5%) Williams moments are coming in Release 24, compared to 1000 of the 2850 (35%) Quickley moments. Until a moment is fully zero’d out there will always be downward price movement after pack drops, so it’s important to understand what to expect relative to other players. In Williams case, this new batch of moments shouldn’t move the needle much so we can expect that his Lowest Ask wont be too volatile. You should feel safe if you own this moment and be fine to hold through the pack drop.
On the flipside, with this huge new influx of Quickley moments, we can expect that to adversely affect the market. If you are currently holding Quickley, it would make sense to sell before the pack drop, because you will surely be able to buy him back for cheaper later. If you are a Quickley fan and have been looking to invest, this large influx of supply can be a time to act quickly (hehe get it?) and try and snipe a listing that is part of the undercutting barrage. Even though there are still 1150 moments to come from him, we have no guarantee that there will be another big batch like this. They could just trickle out in 20s and 30s for the rest of the season, which would not have as big of an impact.
There are many examples of this, so I would encourage everyone to dive into the tool and see how moments in your collection may be affected by the Pre-Order pack drop. Please be aware that I have currently plugged in the worst case scenario for the 35k moments as shown on the Release 24 sheet by Top Shot. We know the final tally came in under their projection, so I would expect some of these numbers to change when the pack listing is finalized.
It’s also important to not overthink some of your decisions due to their being more supply on the way. We know that pack drops are intermittent, and a lot can happen in the NBA in between these Top Shot releases. Feel free to buy up players who have a high number in the “remaining” column, since their real-world performance could initiate a higher demand while the supply is low. Just make sure that you offload these moments before the next pack drop, when prices are sure to drop again (I’m talking directly to all you Talen Horton-Tucker owners right now).
Quick reminder that the Google Sheet and Daily Data articles will be available only to Premium Subscribers starting Monday, April 12th! If you haven’t signed up yet, do so now.