Welcome to the first edition of “Scroll the Eff Down” Fridays. For those of you who don’t know…the term Scroll the Eff Down (STFD) was coined by Jon Warner and the rest of Badge Bros Community. It represents some of the contrarian and high-leverage picks that you can make in drafts by scrolling down just a little bit farther in the player queue and finding those guys that are simply not getting drafted. Of course, there’s also merch (as there seems to be with all things Hot Best Ball Summer).
Recently, Hayden Winks from Underdog Fantasy tweeted out some graphics that can really help quantify when and how far we should be scrolling down.
As I will end up doing very often here at Show Me The Data, I am now going to try and combine the work put forward by two very smart people and help quantify and make it actionable for the current draft landscape.
This is the STFD x SMTD collab you didn’t know that you needed!

Based on the information that Hayden provided in his graphics from the last 3 seasons of Best Ball Mania, I created 4 buckets for each position group.
Over-owned: Based on Points Added data, these players are likely too owned given their potential range of outcomes. Better to just skip and focus on less owned guys.
Sweet Spot: This is who you want to try and hammer in drafts.
Also Good: These players are less good then the Sweet Spot, but also good still. Just not as good.
You’ve Scrolled Too Far!: Jon would probably argue that there’s no limit to how far you can scroll, but based on the data, there surely is. These are the guys who are likely not adding any additional upside to your lineup.
Now that we’ve outlined the buckets, we can then utilize Establish The Run’s projected ownership data (updated daily) to figure out which players fall into which buckets.
Notes:
The Ownership data early in the summer will be a lot more swingy (and to a degree less impactful) then it will be once there are more drafts in the system, but it is still useful information.
I wouldn’t utilize the buckets as hard and fast rules (due to the spreadsheet nerd in me I need to organize it like that), but players in and around the fringes of the green buckets are still probably ok.
I am planning on compiling player trends over the next couple of weeks, so I would just view this as a good primer. Tracking this data over the next few weeks will really help us understand who are the best targets as we continue into summer.