Quantifying the 2024 QB Landscape

Combining historical performance data with projections to see what QBs we should be targeting in Best Ball drafts

Jun 05, 2024

Show Me The Data is back, and boy does it feel good to be firing off data-packed analysis into the universe again! Three years ago, this blog included some of the most influential information in the NBA Top Shot ecosystem. Now, in June of 2024, we are dusting off the cobwebs and refreshing the content to help fully prepare you to dive into NFL Best Ball Summer. Glad to have you along for the ride!

The first series of articles I am writing is going to include an overview of each of the 4 main positions in fantasy football. We are starting with QB, but RB, WR, and TE articles will closely follow. As always, I will be tailoring my content for Underdog Fantasy (Promo Code: JBB), and I’ll be reviewing all of the players based on tiers given their current Average Draft Position (ADP). The goal is to identify valuable draft targets based on historical performance data combined with 2024 projections (shoutout Mike Clay).

The Elite QBs (Tier 1)

Since the Elite QB tier is such an even playing field, I’ll spend this first section talking through some of the different metrics I include in these charts. First to the left is the ADP, Round, and associated Draft Capital which helps identify where the market believes there to be tier breaks.

Next up, are Points per Game metrics for Average, Ceiling, and Floor fantasy results. In all of these calcs, outliers are removed and they are slightly differentiated based on number of games played. Then, we have the frequency at which players scored above certain fantasy point thresholds (for QB this is 26, 28, 30, and 32 fantasy points).

Finally, we have the Weekly Percentile finishes, which compares a player’s weekly fantasy score to the average of the top 2 fantasy scores at their position and indicates how close to that top end range of outcomes they achieved in a given week. These numbers are then weighted and normalized against players within 1-2 adjacent tiers and we come up with the “Score” (workshopping this name still).

As you can see, one chart is based on historical data from the last 4 seasons, and the other chart is based on a very simple simulation (ppg projection randomized w/ historical player specific standard deviation) of 200 games (seems good enough?) from the upcoming season. We can review both of these data sets within tiers to see who separates themselves from the pack.

Historically speaking, Josh Allen has been a slight tier above this group in regards to fantasy output, so it makes a lot of sense why he is being drafted as the QB1. However, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes are really not that far behind in many of the metrics. All three are great consolation prizes.

CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson don’t look as good historically #SmallSampleSize but they both possess elite simulation results. I really do not think there is a bad pick in this tier. I personally am trying to push Elite QB as late as possible (preferably 4th round or later), but am going to be loading up on all of these guys.

The Probably Over-Priced Guys (Tier 2)

While the Elite QBs are priced up in Rounds 3-5 based on past results, this tier of QBs is a bit more falsely propped up in large part due to stacking partners who are being drafted early. This is generally a cohort that I want to be cognizant of, and likely come in underweight.

Joe Burrow (Chase R1, Higgins R4), Kyler Murray (Harrison R1, McBride R4), and Dak Prescott (Lamb R1) all definitely have shown the ceiling outcomes in the past that we want from our QB1. However all of them score a bit lower then the Tier 1 group we just reviewed, and are likely being priced up due to their stacking partners. Dak is probably my favorite of this bunch, but I would highly recommend pushing him as far as possible down the draft boards once you draft CeeDee Lamb. He tends to slip quite a bit.

Jordan Love (Jacobs R4, Reed R5, Watson R8) and Brock Purdy (CMC R1, Aiyuk R2, Deebo R2, Kittle R6) are both in the historical #SmallSampleSize group and clearly both getting priced up based on their stacking partners. I have high hopes for these guys this season, however I would imagine their price is not very efficient.

As you’ll see throughout this series, I am largely going to be a *shrugs shoulders* guy when it comes to Rookies. There are plenty of other smarter people out there with better player takes. However, I would say that the sims data for Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams is encouraging. However, it does feel like these guys are almost a tier too far ahead of the other rookies though.

The Likely League Winners (Tier 3)

We likely aren’t seeing a lot of 30+ point performances from this group, however they provide some really good metrics at a 4-7 round discount from the Tier 2 QBs.

The bull case for Tua Tagovailoa is pretty clear, Tyreek Hill + Jaylen Waddle = high ceiling outcomes. This is evident when comparing him to Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff. All three have very similar points per game numbers, however Tua’s 28pt scoring threshold and 85%+ percentile outcome numbers are a tier above.

Justin Herbert might be the steal of the draft if we are only looking at the numbers. It wasn’t long ago (like literally 9 months), where he was routinely included in the Tier 1 conversation and ADP range. His historical numbers jump off the page within this group. However, he did lose Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Quentin Johnston is #bad, and Jim Harbaugh is a very vocal proponent of #EstablishTheRun. I still want to be willing to swing for the fences by drafting Herbert.

Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Rodgers bring up the rear in a very fitting cohort of old veterans with no mobility (and now much less healthy Achilles), but really strong floor outputs. Stafford grades our as the worst of this group and is likely being dragged up by the three stacking partners on his team that go in the first three rounds. Of course, Cousins and Rodgers are both essentially playing in brand new situations (unless you gained a lot of info from the Jets first 4 plays last year), so I assume there’s some uncertainty being weighed in to the ADP. I am very willing and eager to draft a lot of these two.

Unfortunately Watson is also looking like a pretty good value, but obviously significantly less fun to talk about him.

This group feels safe. They feel cheap. They feel comfortable. They are probably going to be the league winners. I would try to draft a lot of these guys.

If You Squint Hard Enough… (Tier 4)

It’s round 14, you’ve got a nice 1-4-7-1 build going and BAM you just got sniped on two straight QBs from Tier 3…you know what time it is. EMERGENCY BACKSTACK TIME!

I think it’s more fun to talk about these guys through the lens of…”what magic can I make happen over these next 4 rounds”, so here’s my current rankings:

Drake Maye R17 + Ja’Lynn Polk R13 + Antonio Gibson R14 or Hunter Henry R14 + Demario Douglas R16 or Javon Baker R16 + Kendrick Bourne R18 or DJ Chark R18 or Brendan Rice R18 - I’m sure this is the first piece of content you are consuming that likes the optionality of a Patriots late round backstack. Just kidding, at least 34 other fantasy analysts are also talking about this, so I’ll save the word count.
Daniel Jones R17 + Wan’Dale Robinson R15 + Darius Slayton R18 or Jalin Hyatt R18 or (Insert Giants TE here) R18 or Jelani Woods R18 - Everybody in the world things the Giants are going to suck this year from a fantasy standpoint, and what if they just don’t? Jones is not that far removed from a QB9 finish in 2022. I know a lot of people think he won’t finish the season as QB due to contract something yada yada, but a lot of people also thought Jalen Hurts job was in jeopardy going into the 2021 season. This isn’t a Jalen Hurts comp, this is a “we don’t know shit” comp.
Bo Nix R18 + Jaleel McLaughlin R15 + Troy Franklin R16 or Marvin Mims R16 + Mike Gesicki R18 - Everyone is talking about Maye, but not many people are talking about the other rookie who is all but a lock to start football games in Week 1 of the 2024 season. Other options: Greg Dulcich R18 or Andrei Iosivas R18
Will Levis R16 + Chig Okonkwo R17 + Tank Bigsby R18 or Tyler Boyd R18 - Reports are that the Titans are gonna toss the rock around the yard quite a bit this year and we know Levis has a gunslinger mentality. As long as you don’t care about interceptions (you shouldn’t), I think it’s wise to have Levis as a priority target this season. Of course, I much prefer him paired with multiple of Calvin Ridley R6, DeAndre Hopkins R7, Tony Pollard R9, or Tyjae Spears R10.
Bryce Young R17 + Adam Thielen R16 + Bucky Irving or Cade Otton R15 - I am definitely buying the Dave Canales and Brad Idzik hype coming out of OTAs. The only problem is Bryce Young was just so bad last year. Other options: Chubba Hubbard R16, Ja’Tavion Sanders R18
Baker Mayfield R14 + Bucky Irving R15 or Cade Otton R15 + Adam Theilen R16 - Obviously this becomes much better if you happened to land Mike Evans in R2 or Chris Godwin in R6. Other options: Jalen McMillan R18
Geno Smith R15 + Khalil Herbert R16 + Noah Fant R17 - I really don’t think this is worth chasing if you miss out on all three of DK Metcalf R2, JSN R6, and Tyler Lockett R9. However, if you have some of the early Seattle WRs, I really like Geno a lot this year. Khalil Herbert W17 bring back is really the only reason I like this emergency stack (I’m big on Herbert).
Derek Carr R17 + Juwan Johnson R14 + AT Perry R18 - This is the second year in a row where I’m not sure that Carr exists. Like I know he is in the player pool, I just never see him in my queue or on my teams. I would probably skip the AT Perry shot and instead grab Tre Tucker or Michael Gallup (or whoever emerges) as a Raiders bring back in R18.
Justin Fields/Russell Wilson R17 + Calvin Austin R18 or Van Jefferson R18 - Uncertainty rules the day here with the Steelers QB position. Whenever we get more clarity and/or idea on potential number of games played, one of these guys will rise in ADP. I’m not so sure I care that much about trying to capture this value now. RBs or ‘Muth and move on for me.
JJ McCarthy R16 - There is no viable emergency backstack partners at this time. We also do not know how many games he will start. I’m okay waiting until we have less unknowns later in summer.
Gardner Minshew R18 - Another guy who we are not sure who the lat round options are at this point. Minshew doesn’t get drafted often, and doesn’t possess much of a ceiling, but it is worth noting that only 4 raiders get drafted in 100% of drafts right now. There is likely at least one or two more players that emerge as draftable before summer is over.

Well that wraps up the first article in the Show Me The Data rebrand. Please be on the lookout for the rest of the position groups over the next couple of weeks. If you made it this far ready through every viable emergency backstack option in drafts you should probably just click this button.