Capitalizing on a Busy Thursday in Top Shot
Cool Cats 4 Challenge Completion and the MGLE Premium Drop
As if watching all of the Cool Cats commons fight through their respective pricing walls wasn’t going to be enough fun this morning, Top Shot also announced a Premium Pack drop at 2PM PST/ 5PM EST. There is a lot to cover in this week’s edition of Show Me The Data, so I want to hop right in and talk through some ways to take advantage of the market mayhem today.
Breakfast - Cool Cats Commons
If you read last week’s edition, you probably own a Jerami Grant or three so today is the day! As of this morning, all five of the Cool Cats commons are tracking as bigger squeeze liabilities than the Cool Cats themselves so it should be interesting to see what happens up until the timer hits zero. If you are still holding your Cool Cats 4, stop what you are doing right now and go sell it…those prices should continue to trend downward. If you are holding on to Grant, Dwight Howard, or Serge Ibaka the squeeze should be hitting within the next hour or two. Like we talked about on Monday, make sure you keep your eye on # of Listings and Recent Sales to help decide when to sell.
For those of you wondering “Should I complete this challenge?”, I am really hoping that you prioritized these commons and waited on the Cool Cats. Here is my “final” prediction for where I think the CC4 challenge is going to land after the final bell. I can almost guarantee that I am higher on the Westbrook reward than anybody else. We will touch on that a bit more later.
Lunch - Buying Low during the Race for Liquidity
After the Holo Icon drop happened last week, we talked through some interesting trends that applied to moments in what I will call the “liquidity range”. For the legendary pack drop, this was moments with a $300-$600 price tag. We saw a lot of these dip before the pack drop as people tried to top off their Dapper balance. Then, when these same people missed out on a Holo Icon pack, their first instinct was to re-allocate resources back into the moments they just sold, and a majority of this range plateaued about 10% higher than where they started just 48 hours before.
I am not expecting such a drastic dip, rebound, and plateau for this MGLE pack drop, but there will no doubt be people looking to get liquid. Heck, we even see sell-offs when $9 stress tests are announced. Since we don’t have the benefit of reviewing these moments after the fact, let’s use our resources to help find some good moments to target. With a price tag of $99 and some stricter eligibility requirements, I would expect the liquidity range will be moments priced between $50 and $100. Thanks to Add More Funds, I can quickly run a filter of the moments in this range and see what they have done over the past 24 hours.
As you can see, a lot of the moments in this range have actually risen in price, which isn’t what I was expecting. Overall, the market seems to have gotten a nice boost overnight and quite a few moments have seen an increase (YAY!). Even so, this is a good list worth tracking today in case we do see some of the prices dropping off before the pack drop. This is going to be a jam-packed day so maybe people are taking things one at a time and will be getting liquid later on. Even if that doesn’t happen, this is probably still a good representation of what people will be looking to buy if the don’t get lucky in the MGLE queue. Tread lightly here!
Afternoon Snack - Russell Westbrook Reward
Depending on the timing of this reward hitting people’s accounts, this could easily be your second helping at lunch or it might get changed up and be a midnight snack. Nevertheless, I want to emphasize how important I think Russell Westbrook is going to be for the Cool Cats Master Challenge. I will have my “Squeeze Chart” updated tomorrow once all the final numbers roll in, but there are already some leading indicators that Westbrook is going to be very needed.
One of the things I have been tracking using Own The Moment’s awesome challenge tracker, is the amount of accounts which currently have 18+ Cool Cats collected. My assumption is that if you have completed what is equivalent to 75% of the challenge, then you are most likely going for the Master. Here’s where it gets interesting:
Number of people with 18+ Cool Cats: 2300
Number of these who have completed CC4: 1700
Immediate Need once Rewards hit accounts: 600
A typical listing rate (amount listed/mint count) for a Series 2 common moment is roughly 8-10%. If we remove the outlier Kevin Durant Seeing Star reward (#KDSS69420), the high end of listing rates top out in the 13-15% range. Let’s get conservative here and say that 15% or 825 of the 5500 (projected) Russell Westbrook moments are listed later this afternoon. Here’s how his “squeeze” potential (need/list) would look compared to the other three challenge rewards.
CC4 Westbrook: 600/825 = 72% squeeze potential
CC1 Doncic: 211/259 = 81%
CC3 Jokic: 89/664 = 13.4%
CC4 Davis: 31/716 = 4.3%
No, Westbrook is not going to be the bottleneck of the Cool Cats Master challenge, that will always be Luka due to the severe financial hurdle. But I would be willing to bet that Westbrook is going to be listed lower than Jokic/AD today, and that just ain’t right! I will be looking to buy a couple Westbrook’s in the initial dip today and waiting until everyone else figures out how important he is a week or so from now. You probably should do the same.
Dinner - Prey on the MGLE Pack Flippers
At this point, the period after pack drops where pack flippers get all riled up and start to think they need to set fire to their brand new moments, operates like clockwork. It will happen again tonight, I can guarantee it. If you haven’t had enough fun buying moments yet, it’s time to finish the day on a high!
From last week’s analysis showing where at least 16% of Holo Icon collectors went wrong, we know about the immediate dip, the quick rebound, and the plateau after these premium pack drops. Checking out the MP, we can see that the lowest priced MGLE2’s are currently hovering around the $200 mark. This includes players like Davis Bertans, Donte Divincenzo, TJ McConnell, and Jusuf Nurkic who are all going to see another 200 of their moments get released. I don’t think its out of the question that we will see some MGLE2’s under $100 tomorrow night (considering Cool Cats were quickly getting listed under $14 last week). Here’s how to capitalize on this:
If you have your eye on an MGLE2 in tomorrow’s pack drop, right when the MP opens up will be one of the best times to buy. Wait until the lowest ask starts to level out and go and grab it.
If you have some extra money to play with, set your clock to about an hour after the MP opens (pending whatever cooldown timers they add), and snag up any MGLE you can find from a desperate pack flipper. Wait another hour or so (once again pending cooldown timers), and go ahead and list it for a profit. If all goes according to plan you probably paid for a few months of a Show Me The Data subscription.
If you were lucky enough to get an MGLE pack…please for the LOVE OF GOD just hide your phone for a few hours and check out where the market settles in the morning. It’s not worth the extra stress to follow the undercutter barrage.
If that wasn’t already enough for you, go see what your $50-$100 moment(s) are now worth that you might have bought during lunchtime. Hopefully you will have at least paid for your lunch by now. I don’t know about you, but I am ready to have an awesome day today, let’s go have some fun people!
For those of you who have not yet decided to join us on the Premium Side, here are a few of the things we covered this week:
4/19 - How to use transaction volume & sales prices to inform your listing decisions. BOOOO to the irrational undercutters!
4/20 - A sound method to figure out what to list your low-serial moments at.
4/21 - What does the math say about the future of the CC 35000+ moments?
No way this could be coincidence. With the marketplace closed for pack drop, and the challenge requirements coming at the same time, how is it possible that Duncan Robinson is up 44% and Ingles up 33%? How many people working at TS have accounts?
Hey Jon I dont have access to the google sheets can u let me know please?