Buying a Moment using the "Show Me The Data" Tools
How to narrow down your options using all of the information at your fingertips
I am excited for this article because we are going to walk through my process when it comes to buying a moment. I am going to show you how to effectively use the different tools in the "Show Me The Data” Google Sheet.
Here is a recap of everything that went down on the Premium Side:
4/25 - Added data for MGLE 24 (Luka reward) to the sheet. Will continue tracking all rare challenges in the “Current Challenges” tab moving forward.
4/26 - Introduced the “Overexposure” metric to the squeeze chart, and set the table for the TJ McConnell and Jamychal Green run-up at the end of CC5.
4/29 (AM) - Gave my final thoughts and projections on CC5 and MGLE24 before the timers ran out on Thursday morning.
4/29 (PM) - Added CC6 and MGLE 25 data to the spreadsheet within the first two hours of them being announced.
4/30 - Gave my initial reaction to the Trade Ticket announcement, and why I thought “Buy the FLOOR!” wasn’t the greatest initial approach.
In addition to this, the “Show Me The Data” Google Sheet has now been completely revamped with data from the Add More Funds website. This has allowed me to more frequently update pricing, add in recent sales history, and spruce up some of the old tools that were starting to get stagnant. AMF is a great site for Top Shot data, and many other Daily Fantasy, so I would highly recommend checking them out!
We are going to start today with a $1000 budget, and my goal is to end with a diversified portfolio of quality Series 2 moments. The best part about this is I have no pre-conceived list or ideas. I will be choosing the possible moments for each section just seconds before I write about them. Let’s just dive right into the spreadsheet!
Buying a Series 2 Rookie “Quad” Badge
For the rookie portion, I took a look at the current list of 4k Quad badgers and wanted to make sure I got a nice spread from a skillset and financial standpoint. Here are the four I settled in on:
Since these 4k moments are the premier S2 rookie set, I am going to proceed with the mindset that this is a moment that I want to buy and hold for a long time. Taking the subjective “skill evaluation” argument out of it, let’s jump into the Circulating Counts tool.
As you can see, Pritchard (40%) and Quickley (23%) still have quite a bit of their supply that still needs to be distributed. We know that when a large supply of a moment hits the market it is likely to drive down prices further so I will cross-off these two players as long-term investments right now. When looking at the Circ. Count tool, it’s especially useful to review the last few pack drops to help understand future impacts to the pricing.
With Anthony and Haliburton left, let’s take a look at the Compare Commons tool to help decide. Here is a list of all the 4k rookies who also have a 35k rookie moment. They are sorted by their RAT premium (which I will discuss later).
At first glance, Anthony looks like the easy decision…but not so fast! What this chart shows is the current premium that the “Quad” badges are carrying over the players other rookie common moments. RAT is a comparison of serial ratio to price ratio, and a number below 1 means the earlier moment is being priced higher. This makes sense for the quad badges because we would expect there to be a premium! In the case of RJ Barrett (aka the only S1 Quad badge), his premium is 0.22. This number is probably a bit overexaggerated due to his S1 scarcity, but I think it is safe to say these should probably be in the 0.4-0.5 range.
So again, Anthony easy pick right? Well if you go watch these 4 moments you will notice that Anthony’s 35k moment is his game winning buzzer beater against the Timberwolves, which is a lot more special than his top of the key jumper in the 4k moment. Since LaMelo Ball, the highest volume S2 rookie, is tracking below a 0.4 in the premium department, I think the rest of the elite rookies will gravitate closer to this as well. We will spend our first $438 on the Tyrese Haliburton 4k Rookie “Quad” badge.
Finding a Superstar in the 7.5k Moments
Now that we have locked in a good rookie investment, let’s go try and buy a Superstar. We don’t have to look far into S2 to find the studs. For the purposes of this exercise, I chose the following 4 which match up nicely with our remaining budget.
We know that all of the 7.5k moments are out in circulation now so we can quickly eliminate that variable. Unlike the 4k rookies, where we only have one moment to compare against, all of these players have 15k and 35k moments as well. Before we go to the Compare Commons tool again, I think it’s important to discuss the RAT function more in depth. Here is the example I have included at the top of the sheet:
When the RAT does not equal 1, that indicates there is an inefficiency in the market, however it’s important not to assume things will always move in one direction to even things out. Let’s look at how these four stack up in the RAT column for their 7.5k moments:
While it’s easy to get overwhelmed by the numbers, I will give you a quick hint. There will always be one moment for every player that has all RAT numbers above 1. In this case, the Zion Williamson layup fits the bill. While it is definitely not Zion’s flashiest play, it’s hard to argue against what the scarcity of a 7.5k moment will look like a few years from now. Let’s add this $125 Zion to our shopping cart.
Using Sales Data to narrow down a 15k Moment
One of the reasons that I am super excited to be using data from Add More Funds, is their access to sales history. With a few clicks I can quickly summarize how moments current Low Ask is trending compared to the last few days of sales. As I have mentioned previously, using sales history is more important than just looking at the lowest ask. If you can see that a moment has been selling for above the lowest ask price for the last 7 days straight, why would you not buy that moment at a discount? Let’s take a look at the Average Sales tool to find a couple good 15k moments.
As a buyer, we want to target the red cells here because this means that the current lowest ask is smaller than the average sale price from the previous few days. In the case of Andrew Wiggins and Andre Drummond, their lowest ask has been on a steady decline, so it’s probably best to stay away from those. However, the spread on the Nikola Jokic 15k moment is exactly what we want to see! While the current lowest ask of $57 is higher than the average sales price over the last 7 days, it’s also lower than the average sales price over the last day. This signifies a potential discount opportunity on a player who *checks notes* is the overwhelming MVP favorite. Adding the $57 Jokic to our collection now.
We can also find value from the green numbers as well. Here are the biggest risers of the 15k group over the last 7 days.
Miles Bridges is a walking Top Shot moment and has highlight potential every time he steps on the court. We can tell that he has blown up over the last week, since the Low Ask of $24 is 14% higher than the average sales over the past week. However, the percentage has started to declined a bit over the last few days signifying that he may be finding a new plateau here at the $24 mark. With the Hornets set to be involved in the play-in tournament and Bridges capable of a Top Shot buzzing dunk every night, let’s go and grab him for $24 dollars.
On the other side of the green cell spectrum sits Jayson Tatum. It’s no shocker that his lowest ask is up 19% after dropping 60 POINTS on the Spurs last night. However, since this number is quite a bit higher than his 3-day and 7-day sales average, we are likely buying at the peak if we purchase today. Once he falls into the declining positive pattern like Miles Bridges, it will signify a better time to buy.
Using all of the Tools to Target some 35k Moments
It’s time to wrap things up with a shopping frenzy in the 35k range. Now some of these numbers are skewed from the trade ticket announcement yesterday, so bear with me here.
Starting with Compare Commons, let’s find the best RAT compared to the player’s 15k moments. The list with a RAT above 1 is a pretty star-studded group today:
We will immediate eliminate the 5 moments that have the least amount in circulation, so we can lessen the burn from the undercut barrage over the next few pack drops. Referencing the Circulating Count tool).
Next, we will take the remaining 10 players and head over to the Average Sales tab to see where these players have been trending recently. As expected, we can see the recent rising of the floor has really affected things!
Even with the news of the trade tickets, Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander average sales yesterday were in-line with where they were the rest of the week. This means they were trading at a discount prior to the announcement and are likely still priced at a reasonable entry point. Mitchell is another example of the same. He was selling at an average of $10 over the last week, however most of his sales were below this mark yesterday. The floor has effectively been bought up and $10 should fee like a safe plateau.
Recapping our Purchases
That was a fun little exercise that resulted in a pretty nice haul of moments. Remember to subscribe to the Premium Side so you can get access to all these great tools as well as The Daily Data which hits your inbox everyday!
Tyrese Haliburton 4k - $438
Zion Williamson 7.5k - $125
Nikola Jokic 15k - $57
Miles Bridges 15k - $25
Donovan Mitchell 35k - $10
Chris Paul 35k - $8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35k - $8
For those of you doing the math at home, we fell $329 short of our budget. But that’s okay, you don’t always have to drain your Dapper balance. I’m sure we are going to find some good things to spend it on over the upcoming week. Stay Tuned!
Just to add clarity here:
If Moment A's CC < Moment B's CC, then Serial Ratio/Price Ratio = RAT.
If Moment A's CC > Moment B's CC, then Price Ratio/Serial Ratio = RAT.
Thanks for this very helpful rundown. So, if I am using your data and the logic correctly, it looks like the Kevin Durant 35k moment is a good buy low opportunity going into the playoffs.