ADP Velocity - 6/18 Report
Tracking ADP changes over time to determine when and where to target the movers
Throughout Best Ball Summer on Underdog Fantasy, we know there is going to be a lot of player ADP movement. Training camp notes, Schefter tweets, and best ball podcasts all help move around the landscape on a weekly basis.
One of my core tenants of best ball is exploitative drafting. This is especially important if you are going to be drafting consistently for the next 2.5 months. We want to be attacking ADP spots that may be short term, and avoiding new ADP spots that are gaining in market efficiency. Generally speaking, when there’s ADP movement, we want to determine what that means the market is doing, and then figure out the right way to try and exploit it.
I created a new tool that I’m calling “ADP Velocity” which is geared at trying to categorize the player ADP movement and measure whether it is still moving or if it has plateaued out. It tracks the ADP delta over the last two weeks, and then measures the daily movement over the last one week, to help determine these categories.
Players who have Topped Out
These are all players who have seen their ADP rise over the past 2 weeks, but have started to taper off and likely have settled in on their current price. Most of these names are likely tied to “positive” news. The “Topped Out” category should identify that the current ADP is real. If you feel like you don’t want to pay the new price, feel free to push these players a few picks and see if they fall to you at closer to their old price.
Players who are Still Rising
Similar to the first category, a lot of these players will likely have “positive” news surrounding them. What’s important to delineate here is that the price is still going up. The “Still Rising” category should identify players who you will likely have to take before the current ADP if you want to get them in drafts. It can also identify a spot where you want to hold on until you see where ADP settles.
Players who are Still Falling
This is the exact opposite of the previous category. There has likely been some “negative” buzz around these players, and the ADP drop off has begun. It’s too early to call their new ADP efficient, and they should likely keep moving down draft boards. The “Still Falling” category should identify players who you can likely push to after their current ADP if you want to get them in drafts. It can also identify a spot where you want to keep holding on until you see where ADP settles.
Players who have Bottomed Out
These are all players who have seen their ADP fall over the past 2 weeks, but have started to taper off and likely have settled in on their current price. Most of these names are likely tied to “negative” news. The “Bottomed Out” category should identify that the current ADP is real. If you feel like you don’t want to pay the new price, feel free to push these players a few picks and see if you can squeeze a couple extra spots of value out of them.